A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
